When will the Bitcoin price go up? 📈
💡 Daily Reminder: Stay humble, stack sats
Bitcoiners,
Nobody knows when the price of Bitcoin will significantly go back up.
However, there are a few key indicators that can give us an idea. We can pair these indicators with Bitcoin's past price history and overlay the macro environment to make educated guesses about when the price will go up (or down) next. Here are some indicators you can use to make an educated guess about the price of bitcoin in the future.
Note, Bitcoin is a global phenomenon, meaning there are limitless variables determining the price at any given moment.
Key Indicators
Supply and demand for Bitcoin ultimately decide the price.
Demand can be analyzed by these key charts:
Trading Volume - Trading volume begins to pick up increasingly leading up to a price rally.
Google Trends - Retail buyers increasingly Google the keyword "Bitcoin" before a major price increase.
Balance on Exchanges - Bitcoin held on exchanges tends to lower as more retail and institutional buyers begin driving prices up.
There are countless charts to analyze Bitcoin's market trends but these are a great place to start for a high-level overview.
Price History
Bitcoin has gone through 5 or so boom and bust cycles since 2009.
Previous cycles show that bitcoin tops at an all-time high and then bottoms about a year or so later. In 2017, the price of bitcoin peaked at nearly $20,000 then bottomed a year later in 2018 at just above $3,000, which is an 80% drop. Bitcoin peaked last in November 2021 at $69,000 and has dropped 74% at the bottom so far.
Nobody knows if the price truly bottomed yet this cycle, but previous price cycles suggest bitcoin's price will begin shifting upward again within 2023.
Macro Environment
Bitcoin is a small sub-trillion-dollar asset class compared to some other asset classes worth hundreds of trillions of dollars.
Bitcoin's relatively small market capitalization means it is subject to macroeconomic conditions that affect price movement. The federal reserve began increasing the cost of capital by increasing rates in March 2022. The Fed's decision to keep raising rates along with threats of nuclear war and supply chain issues plays a role in bitcoin's price action over the next year.
I like to read Bitcoin Magazine Pro's analysis of Bitcoin markets and the overall macro environment to gauge where the price is heading next.
My prediction is that Bitcoin's price will start to go back up sometime in mid-2023, which is about a year before the next bitcoin halving in April 2024.
Happy Friday,
-Pod
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Eric Podwojski
Founder, Bitcoin EDU
Twitter: @epodrulz
Disclaimer: This should go without saying: This is not financial advice. This is not investment advice. I write this newsletter for education and entertainment. Act accordingly.
nice curated.
Pls write about other coins.